The Australian Greens are implementing a high-risk strategy in a bid to win their first ever House of Representatives seat in a general election. Campaign material released by the Greens this week establishes the Federal seat of Melbourne as the setting of a historical campaign: “If just one in ten [voters] change their vote to Green,” says candidate Adam Bandt, “then we will make history.”

The Greens’ Adam Bandt faces stiff competition from incumbent Lindsay Tanner. Labor will invest all the resources at its disposal to protect the Government’s competent Finance Minister. The loss of a high-profile figure like Tanner would be a severe blow for the Rudd Government, and Labor simply won’t let this happen. We can expect them to substantially outspend the Greens, bombard residents with pamphlets, and use the powers of government to their benefit.

Presenting the 2010 election campaign as “historical” has some advantages for the Greens. It communicates a sense of inevitability that will raise the morale of grassroots supporters and existing Greens voters, while increasing the appeal to new left-leaning voters. This was the successful approach taken by former Labor leader Gough Whitlam in his “it’s time” campaign to become the first Labor prime minister in over two decades. More recently, the strategy helped elect Barack Obama to the Oval Office. While the Obama camp somewhat played down the historical nature of his candidacy and potential to become the first African American president, the media did not. The sense of being a part of history was communicated by the media and no doubt helped his campaign.

For all its positives, the Greens’ strategy poses a serious risk. If the Greens fail to win what they have presented as an almost unlosable election, they risk damaging their attractiveness in the future. A loss will also strengthen their opponent who could rightly be perceived as exceeding expectations in the eyes of the electorate. A Labor win will be a demoralising blow for the Greens.

And another thing…

It’s clear that Greens campaigners have read David Plouffe’s Audacity to Win—the inside story of the Obama campaign through the eyes of its manger. The Greens have taken a leaf out of the Obama campampaign playbook: they are positioning themselves as political outsiders just like Obama did in his primary and general election campaigns. The “same old politics” in Washington Obama frequently spoke about on the stump has been modified to the “same old, tired party politics” in Canberra. As the year unfolds, we can expect the Greens to deploy the familiar themes of hope and change in campaign media, and utilise the organising techniques used to great success by President Obama.

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